Friday, June 19, 2020

A Heretic Economist whose time may have come, at last

The old joke about economists: If you laid all the economists in the world end-to-end ... they would still point in all directions.

So a corollary of this is that being a heretic to standard schools of economics isn't as much of an impossibility as it was for Jacques Benveniste with his proof of homeopathy to the scientific establishment.

Current schools of economics have, shall we say, a problem with the models they use matching reality. Just look at one of the major economic events of recent years:

  • The 2008 "great recession" and subsequent events. Almost no mainstream economist predicted it, and many predicted rampant inflation after the "quantitative easing" the Federal Reserve used to try and fix the effects of the recession ... which of course did not occur.
Our "heretic" says she has a model of economic reality called Modern Monetary Theory that better matches the economic facts on the ground, and after reading her book, I believe her.

Here she is:

Dr. Stephanie Kelton

Her views diverge wildly from the mainstream:
  • A balanced U.S. Federal budget is undesirable, as it does not fuel the economy sufficiently
  • Deficit spending in any country with "monetary sovereignty" (like the U.S., Japan, the U.K., Australia, even China) is, within very large limits, a benefit to that country's citizens
  • We have plenty of resources in the U.S. to achieve guaranteed full employment and fully funded health care for everyone, without necessarily raising taxes a whole lot
  • Austerity in any country with monetary sovereignty is a preposterously self-limiting strategy
  • "pay as you go" plans to make sure any new spending is "deficit neutral" are unnecessary and actively harmful to the economy
If this makes you want to know more, the book she's just published is very readable:


And if you're more of a Youtube person than a reader, here's a small example for you to enjoy.

Tuesday, June 9, 2020

The Universe is a conspiracy for my benefit; a visualization to keep this going

Is visualization the key?


Seems worth a try ...

Despite many mistakes I've made throughout life, I seem to be in much better shape than I could expect:
  • I have degrees in computer science and started with Python in 2006, and now that's a hot job ticket

  • So I've just started a w2 job which I can work from home doing for as long as the coronavirus shutdown lasts, making a good salary

  • I have a loving wife who's stuck with me through thick and thin

  • (fingers crossed) I remain in excellent health, not even having a cold more than once every two or three years
  • I didn't get to work in anything related to the 'gig economy' or the hospitality industry or the restaurant industry ...
But there are things I want and don't yet have:

  • A net-zero-energy house on acreage

  • A Tesla or similar electric car
  • Enough money so that my lovely wife can travel to her heart's content

... and so forth. But this is kind of a busy bunch of stuff to visualize, so I think I am going to just focus on one number: my FICO score.

700

This is what I need to be able to do what I want (get construction funding to get a house built, etc.)

Right now my score is around 640 as I have way too much debt and no obvious way to pay it down quickly.

So what could happen to fix this? In order of likelihood:
  • I could win the lottery (I'd have to buy a ticket more regularly than I have been, I guess)
  • This blog could go viral and could get enough views for me to sell ads on it
  • Our business venture(s) (Rain, DirtRich) could hit it big
  • Something else I can't imagine, or some combination of these things, or both
So I'm going to spend 5 or 10 minutes lying in bed visualizing this number every day until I have it.
Here goes:

700
700
700

Any visualization help you can give is welcome!